Hurricane Season & Oil Prices
Atlantic hurricane season runs June through November, peaking in September, and it is the one recurring weather event that can knock out a meaningful share of US oil and gas supply within hours. The Gulf of Mexico supplies roughly 13% of US crude production — about 1.8 million barrels a day of the current 13.7 Mb/d US total (2026-10-09) — and just over half of all US refinery capacity sits on the Gulf Coast. A direct hit can shut in most of that overnight; the historical record below shows how far, and how fast it recovers.
What's Exposed Right Now
Live EIA weekly data| Measure | Value | As of / source |
|---|---|---|
| US crude production | 13.7 Mb/d | 2026-10-09 · EIA |
| Estimated Gulf of Mexico share | ~1.8 Mb/d (~13%) | 2026 EIA forecast · EIA, Today in Energy — Gulf of Mexico oil and natural gas production outlook |
| National refinery utilization | 93.5% | 2026-10-09 · EIA |
| Gulf Coast refining share | 54.4% of US capacity (9.88 million b/cd, 58 refineries) | Jan 1, 2026 · EIA · by state |
Live production and refinery figures from EIA fundamentals; today's prices on the dashboard. The Gulf share is a hand-tracked EIA estimate, not a weekly series — see the note above the historical table.
How Bad Storms Have Actually Been
| Season | Storm(s) | Peak shut-in | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Katrina & Rita Aug 29 & Sep 24, 2005 |
Katrina alone shut in 95% of Gulf oil production and destroyed 47 platforms and 4 drilling rigs; Rita then shut in 100% of Gulf oil production and destroyed 66 more platforms and 4 more rigs | 96.8% of Gulf oil production was still shut in a month later (Sep 28); by late October, 66% of oil and 53% of gas production remained offline |
| 2008 | Gustav & Ike Sep 1 & Sep 13, 2008 |
Gustav alone shut in 100% of Gulf crude production and 95% of gas production at its peak; as Ike approached, 96.9% of oil and 93.3% of gas production was shut in | Recovery was faster than 2005 — about 40% of production was back within days of landfall — but by Oct 14 nearly 39% of oil and 37% of gas production was still shut in |
| 2017 | Harvey Aug 25, 2017 |
Harvey mainly hit onshore refining rather than offshore production: Gulf Coast refinery gross inputs fell 3.2 million b/d (34%) in a single week, and regional refinery utilization fell from 96% to 63% — about a quarter of Gulf Coast refining capacity offline | Refinery runs recovered over the following weeks as flooding receded and plants restarted |
| 2021 | Ida Aug 29, 2021 |
96% of Gulf crude production and 94% of gas production shut in (BSEE); at least 9 refineries shut down or cut runs, taking about 2.11 million b/d of refining capacity (~12% of the US total) offline | Some Gulf production stayed offline for weeks — several platforms took over a month to fully restart because of onshore power and pipeline damage |
2005: US retail gasoline spiked well above $3/gal for the first time, and the SPR's first major post-9/11 emergency drawdown followed (EIA hurricane impact archive)
2008: Cumulative shut-ins for the season totaled roughly 65 million barrels of crude and 400 Bcf of gas (EIA, 2009 Outlook for Hurricane Production Outages)
2017: US average retail gasoline rose 28¢/gal in about a week (to $2.68); Texas prices rose 40¢/gal to $2.56 (EIA, Today in Energy, Sep 13, 2017)
2021: EIA revised down its September STEO production and refinery-run forecasts directly because of Ida (EIA, Today in Energy, Sep 2021)
Why Refineries Usually Matter More Than Wells
Offshore production
- Operators shut in and evacuate platforms ahead of a storm as a safety precaution — production can drop to near-zero within a day even before the storm makes landfall.
- Offshore output usually snaps back fastest once a storm clears, unless platforms, subsea infrastructure or onshore pipeline hubs are physically damaged.
- 2005's Katrina–Rita combination is the outlier: enough platforms and rigs were destroyed outright that full recovery took months, not days.
Onshore refining
- Refineries and petrochemical plants along the Texas and Louisiana coast are vulnerable to flooding, storm surge and prolonged power outages — Harvey barely touched offshore output but still cut Gulf Coast refining runs by a third.
- Because Gulf Coast refineries process such a large share of the national total, a refining-side disruption shows up in pump prices nationwide within days, not just regionally.
- Refinery restarts are slower and more complex than platform restarts — flooded electrical systems and damaged units can keep a plant offline for weeks after a storm passes.
Hurricanes & Oil Prices FAQ
How much can a hurricane raise gas prices?
It depends on whether refineries or offshore wells take the hit. Hurricane Harvey (2017), which mainly disrupted Gulf Coast refining rather than offshore production, pushed the US average retail gasoline price up 28 cents a gallon in about a week. Storms that primarily hit offshore platforms without damaging onshore refineries tend to move crude supply and futures prices more than they move pump prices.
Which was the worst hurricane for oil production?
By platforms destroyed and length of disruption, the back-to-back 2005 hurricanes Katrina and Rita were the worst on record — Katrina alone shut in 95% of Gulf oil production, and combined the two storms destroyed well over 100 platforms and left nearly two-thirds of Gulf output still offline a month later. By speed of impact, Hurricane Gustav in 2008 shut in 100% of Gulf crude output at its peak, though recovery was much faster than in 2005.
When is hurricane season, and when is the riskiest period?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through November 30, with activity historically peaking in September. Most of the major Gulf of Mexico oil and refinery disruptions on record — Katrina, Rita, Gustav, Ike, Harvey and Ida — made landfall between late August and mid-September.
Does a hurricane always disrupt oil prices?
No — most storms that cross the Gulf cause brief, partial shut-ins that barely move prices, especially now that offshore platforms are built and operated with hurricanes in mind. It takes either a direct hit on the refining corridor (Harvey) or enough platform and pipeline destruction to slow the recovery for weeks (Katrina/Rita, Ida) to move national gasoline prices meaningfully.