Natural Gas Price Forecast — EIA Henry Hub Projections
The EIA currently projects Henry Hub natural gas to average $3.48 per MMBtu in 2026 and $3.16 in 2027. The front month last closed at $3.083. Below: the official forecast, current storage, and the drivers that decide whether it holds. See the live natural gas page for today's price and chart.
EIA Henry Hub Forecast (annual averages, $/MMBtu)
Official · revised monthly| 2025 | 2026 (est.) | 2027 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| 3.53 | 3.48 | 3.16 |
Source: EIA STEO. Watch the weekly storage report on fundamentals (Thursdays), the live Henry Hub price, and the oil price forecast.
What the Henry Hub Forecast Implies
| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| EIA forecast, 2026 annual average | 3.48 $/MMBtu | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, spot-price basis |
| 2026 actual average so far | 3.10 | daily futures closes through Oct 19 (0.80 of the year) |
| Latest futures close | 3.08 | Oct 19; 11.4% below the 2026 forecast average |
| EIA forecast, 2027 annual average | 3.16 | the latest close is 2.4% below it |
The EIA forecasts spot prices while the actual averages here are front-month futures settlements. The two normally differ by little, but in a supply disruption physical spot prices can run well above futures, so the year-to-date futures average can sit below the EIA's spot-based estimate without any inconsistency. A forecast is the EIA's central estimate, not a promise.
Henry Hub Forecast in Context: Actuals and Projections
| Year | Actual average (futures closes) | EIA STEO | Change from prior year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2.53 | — | — |
| 2020 | 2.13 | — | −15.8% |
| 2021 | 3.73 | — | +75.1% |
| 2022 | 6.54 | — | +75.3% |
| 2023 | 2.67 | — | −59.2% |
| 2024 | 2.41 | — | −9.7% |
| 2025 | 3.62 | 3.53 | +46.5% |
| 2026 | 3.10 | 3.48 | −1.4% |
| 2027 FORECAST | — | 3.16 | −9.2% |
The change column uses the EIA figure where there is one and the actual average otherwise. STEO covers the last completed year, the current year (an estimate that blends actuals and forecast) and next year. Earlier history by year: price history.
Storage Versus Normal
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Lower-48 working gas, week ending Oct 9 | 3,567 Bcf |
| Change on the week | +67 Bcf |
| Average of the same week, previous 5 years | 3,509 Bcf |
| Versus that average | +58 Bcf (+1.6%) |
Storage below the five-year average usually supports prices and storage above it weighs on them, because it measures how much cushion the market has going into winter. Full chart and the Thursday report explained: natural gas storage and fundamentals.
Natural Gas Forecast FAQ
What is the natural gas price forecast for 2026 and 2027?
The EIA projects Henry Hub natural gas to average $3.48 per MMBtu in 2026 and $3.16 in 2027. The front-month futures last closed at $3.083 (2026-10-19). The forecast is revised every month with the Short-Term Energy Outlook.
How full is US natural gas storage right now?
Lower-48 working gas in storage is 3,567 Bcf as of the EIA week ending 2026-10-09 (up 67 Bcf week-over-week). Storage versus the 5-year average is the single most-watched fundamental for gas prices — see the seasonal storage chart on the fundamentals page.
What drives natural gas prices up or down?
Weather first: heating demand in winter, air-conditioning (power burn) in summer. Then storage levels versus the 5-year norm, LNG export volumes (which link US prices to world markets), and production from associated shale gas. A cold snap with low storage is the classic price-spike setup.
Why are US gas prices so much lower than Europe or Asia?
The US produces more gas than it consumes and export capacity (LNG terminals) is the bottleneck. European and Asian buyers pay shipping, liquefaction and regasification on top — plus their own supply premiums. As more US LNG capacity comes online, the price gap narrows.