Oil Price Forecast — What the EIA and the Market Expect
The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook currently projects WTI crude to average $88.21 per barrel in 2026 and $79.74 in 2027, with Brent at $96.32 rising to $83.74. The full table below includes natural gas and world supply-demand, and the outlook page adds the live forward curves and trend signals. No forecast is a promise — see the FAQ for how to use these numbers.
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — Annual Averages
Official · revised monthly| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (est.) | 2027 (forecast) | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Spot Average | 65.40 | 88.21 | 79.74 | $/bbl |
| Brent Crude Spot Average | 69.04 | 96.32 | 83.74 | $/bbl |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot | 3.53 | 3.48 | 3.16 | $/MMBtu |
| US Crude Oil Production | 13.66 | 13.87 | 14.30 | Mb/d |
| World Petroleum Production | 106.29 | 101.09 | 109.55 | Mb/d |
| World Liquid Fuels Consumption | 104.40 | 102.43 | 104.64 | Mb/d |
Source: EIA STEO. See also the live forward curves and trend snapshot, the natural gas forecast, and today's WTI price.
What the WTI Forecast Implies
| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| EIA forecast, 2026 annual average | 88.21 $/bbl | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, spot-price basis |
| 2026 actual average so far | 84.39 | daily futures closes through Oct 19 (0.80 of the year) |
| Latest futures close | 97.97 | Oct 19; 11.1% above the 2026 forecast average |
| EIA forecast, 2027 annual average | 79.74 | the latest close is 22.9% above it |
The EIA forecasts spot prices while the actual averages here are front-month futures settlements. The two normally differ by little, but in a supply disruption physical spot prices can run well above futures, so the year-to-date futures average can sit below the EIA's spot-based estimate without any inconsistency. A forecast is the EIA's central estimate, not a promise.
WTI Forecast in Context: Actuals and Projections
| Year | Actual average (futures closes) | EIA STEO | Change from prior year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 57.04 | — | — |
| 2020 | 39.34 | — | −31.0% |
| 2021 | 68.11 | — | +73.1% |
| 2022 | 94.33 | — | +38.5% |
| 2023 | 77.60 | — | −17.7% |
| 2024 | 75.76 | — | −2.4% |
| 2025 | 64.74 | 65.40 | −13.7% |
| 2026 | 84.39 | 88.21 | +34.9% |
| 2027 FORECAST | — | 79.74 | −9.6% |
The change column uses the EIA figure where there is one and the actual average otherwise. STEO covers the last completed year, the current year (an estimate that blends actuals and forecast) and next year. Earlier history by year: price history.
What the Brent Forecast Implies
| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| EIA forecast, 2026 annual average | 96.32 $/bbl | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, spot-price basis |
| 2026 actual average so far | 90.15 | daily futures closes through Oct 19 (0.80 of the year) |
| Latest futures close | 108.54 | Oct 19; 12.7% above the 2026 forecast average |
| EIA forecast, 2027 annual average | 83.74 | the latest close is 29.6% above it |
The EIA forecasts spot prices while the actual averages here are front-month futures settlements. The two normally differ by little, but in a supply disruption physical spot prices can run well above futures, so the year-to-date futures average can sit below the EIA's spot-based estimate without any inconsistency. A forecast is the EIA's central estimate, not a promise.
Brent Forecast in Context: Actuals and Projections
| Year | Actual average (futures closes) | EIA STEO | Change from prior year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 64.16 | — | — |
| 2020 | 43.09 | — | −32.8% |
| 2021 | 70.95 | — | +64.7% |
| 2022 | 98.97 | — | +39.5% |
| 2023 | 82.19 | — | −17.0% |
| 2024 | 79.82 | — | −2.9% |
| 2025 | 68.10 | 69.04 | −13.5% |
| 2026 | 90.15 | 96.32 | +39.5% |
| 2027 FORECAST | — | 83.74 | −13.1% |
The change column uses the EIA figure where there is one and the actual average otherwise. STEO covers the last completed year, the current year (an estimate that blends actuals and forecast) and next year. Earlier history by year: price history.
The Supply-Demand Balance Behind the Forecast
| Year | World production, Mb/d | World consumption, Mb/d | Balance, Mb/d | Implied stock change, million bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 106.29 | 104.40 | +1.89 | +690 |
| 2026 | 101.09 | 102.43 | −1.34 | −489 |
| 2027 FORECAST | 109.55 | 104.64 | +4.91 | +1,792 |
Balance = production minus consumption from the same EIA outlook; a negative balance means the world draws on inventories that year, a positive one means stocks build. The stock change is the balance times the days in the year. The 2026 figures reflect the supply disruption documented on the Strait of Hormuz timeline. Weekly US inventories: EIA fundamentals.
Oil Price Forecast FAQ
What is the oil price forecast for 2026?
The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook projects WTI crude to average $88.21 per barrel and Brent $96.32 in 2026. For reference, WTI's latest close is $97.97 (2026-10-19). These are official US government forecasts, revised every month.
What is the oil price forecast for 2027?
For 2027, the EIA projects WTI to average $79.74 per barrel and Brent $83.74. Forecasts this far out are especially sensitive to OPEC+ policy, demand growth and geopolitics — the EIA publishes wide confidence intervals around these numbers.
Will oil prices go up or down?
Nobody knows with certainty — but the market's own view is readable in the futures curve: backwardation (front month priciest) signals tightness today, contango signals comfortable supply. Combine that with the EIA's official projections and the weekly inventory data to form a grounded view rather than relying on any single prediction.
How accurate are oil price forecasts?
Historically, not very — unforecastable events (wars, pandemics, OPEC+ surprises) dominate. Studies show even professional forecasts rarely beat the futures curve. That's why this page shows the official EIA projection and the live market curve rather than a proprietary guess.