Oil & Gas Market Pulse
This week's market read is bullish. Crude is bullish (WTI +4.2% over five trading days), products are bullish (distillates −12% vs the 5-year average) and natural gas is bearish (storage +1.6% vs the 5-year average). Each label below comes from a published rule applied to prices, EIA inventories versus their five-year average, gas storage and basin rig counts; nothing here is a forecast.
Today's Read
Oil: Prices, Inventories and Refining
| Measure | Latest | Change | vs 5-year average | Signal | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | $97.70/bbl | +4.2% (5 days) | — | BULLISH | Oct 19 |
| Brent crude | $108.19/bbl | +1.4% (5 days) | — | NEUTRAL | Oct 19 |
| US commercial crude stocks (ex-SPR) | 415.6 Mb | −8.6 Mb week | −11.3 Mb (−2.7%) | BULLISH | Oct 9 |
| US gasoline stocks | 208.3 Mb | +3.5 Mb week | −9.7 Mb (−4.4%) | BULLISH | Oct 9 |
| US distillate stocks | 102.6 Mb | −2.5 Mb week | −14.3 Mb (−12.2%) | BULLISH | Oct 9 |
| US refinery utilization | 93.5% | +0.8 pts week | — | — | Oct 9 |
| US crude production | 13.7 Mb/d | −0.30 Mb/d week | — | — | Oct 9 |
Price change is the daily settlement versus five trading days earlier. Inventories are compared with the average of the same week in each of the previous five years. Refinery utilization and production are shown without a signal because the cached data holds no five-year history for them. Distillate detail: diesel market dashboard.
Natural Gas: Henry Hub and Storage
| Measure | Latest | Change | vs 5-year average | Signal | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub natural gas | $3.077/MMBtu | −2.8% (5 days) | — | BEARISH | Oct 19 |
| Lower-48 working gas in storage | 3,567 Bcf | +67 Bcf week | +58 Bcf (+1.6%) | NEUTRAL | Oct 9 |
Gas storage tracks heating and cooling demand and LNG exports. See the EIA gas forecast and world gas production.
Basin Pulse: Active Rigs
Baker Hughes · week of Oct 9| Basin | Mainly | Active rigs | vs prior week | Share of US rigs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permian | oil | 274 | +4 | 45% |
| Haynesville | gas | 57 | +1 | 9% |
| Eagle Ford | oil, condensate and gas | 49 | unchanged | 8% |
| Williston | oil (Bakken) | 35 | unchanged | 6% |
| Marcellus | gas | 23 | unchanged | 4% |
| Granite Wash | oil and gas | 20 | unchanged | 3% |
| Cana Woodford | oil and gas (SCOOP) | 19 | −1 | 3% |
| DJ-Niobrara | oil | 10 | unchanged | 2% |
| Utica | gas | 10 | unchanged | 2% |
US total 603 rigs (+5 on the week). Baker Hughes assigns each county to at most one named basin, so rigs outside them are not listed here. Every county and basin: rig map; all basins side by side: US oil and gas basins.
How the Signals Work
The rules
- Price: bullish above +1.5% over five trading days, bearish below −1.5%, otherwise neutral.
- Inventories: bullish when more than 2% below the five-year same-week average, bearish when more than 2% above.
- Groups: crude = WTI + Brent + crude stocks; products = gasoline + distillate stocks; gas = Henry Hub + storage. A group takes the sum of its signals, and "mixed" means they disagree.
What it is not
- Not a forecast or investment advice: it restates this week's numbers under fixed rules.
- Not a view on geopolitics. The 2026 Hormuz timeline and OPEC+ meetings sit outside these rules.
- For the official outlook see the EIA forecast.
Market Pulse FAQ
Are US oil inventories above or below normal?
In the EIA week of Oct 9: commercial crude stocks (ex-SPR) 415.6 million barrels (−2.7% vs the 5-year average of 426.9); gasoline stocks 208.3 million barrels (−4.4% vs the 5-year average of 218.0); distillate stocks 102.6 million barrels (−12.2% vs the 5-year average of 116.9). "Normal" here is the average of the same week in each of the previous five years. Stocks below that average are read as supportive for prices, above it as a weight.
Is natural gas storage above or below normal?
Lower-48 working gas in storage was 3,567 Bcf in the week of Oct 9, 58 Bcf (1.6%) above the 5-year same-week average of 3,509 Bcf. The week-over-week change was +67 Bcf.
How are the bullish and bearish labels decided?
Mechanically, from the numbers shown on this page. A price is bullish if it rose more than 1.5% over the last five trading days and bearish if it fell more than 1.5%. A stock level is bullish if it is more than 2% below the five-year same-week average (tight supply) and bearish if more than 2% above (ample supply). A group takes the sum of its signals. They summarise the data, are not a forecast and are not investment advice.
When does this page update?
Prices refresh every hour from the daily closes; EIA petroleum stocks and refinery data arrive on Wednesdays and gas storage on Thursdays; basin rig counts follow the Baker Hughes Friday report. Every figure carries its own date.